Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
